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- Analisis Teknikal
Kopi Robusta Analisis Teknikal - Kopi Robusta Berniaga: 2018-12-26
World harvest forecasts may be excessively optimistic
Marex Spectron forecasts a global coffee deficit in the 2017/18 agricultural season in the amount of 1.7 million bags (60 kg). Will Robusta prices rise?
Previously, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published a very optimistic forecast for the world coffee harvest in the 2018/19 season. World production, according to the USDA, will be 174.5 million bags (60 kg), and consumption - 163.6 million. The difference will be used for increasing world reserves. Due to these expectations, in 2018, the cost of Robusta coffee fell by 16% to the low since March 2016. Now the dynamics of prices may strongly depend on weather.
On the daily timeframe, Robusta: D1 remains in a downtrend. It has slowed down and a number of technical analysis indicators have formed buy signals. The further price correction is possible in case of a reduction in world harvest and an increase in demand.
- The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
- The Bollinger bands are widening strongly, which indicates high volatility.
- The RSI indicator is below 50. No divergence.
- The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.
The bullish momentum may develop in case Robusta exceeds its last high and the 1st level of Fibonacci at 1540. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the last fractal low and the Parabolic signal at 1460. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (1460) without reaching the order (1540), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.
Summary of technical analysis
| Position | Buy |
| Buy stop | Above 1540 |
| Stop loss | Below 1460 |
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Perhatian:
Kajian berikut adalah berdasarkan maklumat kognitif dan diterbitkan secara percuma. Semua maklumat, terkandung dalam semakan semasa, diperolehi dari sumber umum, diakui sebagai tidak tepat sepenuhnya. Oleh yang demikian tidak dijamin, maklumat yang dipaparkan adalah tepat dan lengkap sepenuhnya. Ulasan kemudian tidak dikemaskini. Segala maklumat pada setiap ulasan, seperti ramalan, petunjuk, carta dan seumpama dengannya, hanya disertakan bagi tujuaan rujukan, dan bukan sebagai nasihat kewangan atau cadangan. Kesemua teks dan sebahagian darinya, dan termasuk juga carta, sesama sekali tidak boleh digunakan sebagai cadangan untuk membuat sebarang transaksi untuk sebarang saham. Syarikat IFC Markets dan pekerjanya tidak akan bertanggungjawab di bawah mana-mana keadaan untuk segala tindakan yang diambil oleh sesiapa selepas atau semasa ulasan.
